3 Reasons why Kari Lake will beat Katie Hobbs

Arizona Governor Polls 2022: Kari Lake: 46.3%, Katie Hobbs: 45.3%.
Latest Kari Lake Poll: Kari Lake: 50%, Katie Hobbs: 46%.

Google Search Share: Kari Lake: 62%, Katie Hobbs: 38%.
Social Media Sentiment: Kari Lake: -60.7%, Katie Hobbs -47.3%.

Net Favorability (Emerson): Kari Lake: +1%, Katie Hobbs +2%
CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Kari Lake to win by 3%

When is the Arizona Governor’s Race?

Arizona’s Gubernatorial and Presidential elections have been dominated by Republicans for years. However, in the 2020 Presidential election, Joe Biden flipped the state and shocked Donald Trump. The upcoming Governor election is an opportunity not only for Republicans but also for Donald Trump to avenge the 2020 defeat.

The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022.

Arizona Governor Candidates 2022

The Republican Party Candidate Kari Lake, 53, is a former evening anchor at Fox-10 in Phoenix Arizona. She worked at Fox between 1999 and 2021. She was a Republican until 2006 before switching to being an Independent in 2006, she registered as a Democrat in 2008 before returning to the Republican party again in 2012. She was endorsed by former President Donald Trump before the Republican Primary.

The Democratic Party Candidate Katie Hobbs, 52, was a social worker until 2010 before being elected to the Arizona House of Representatives as a Democrat in 2010. She was elected to the Arizona Senate in 2012 and served as the Senate Minority Leader.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Predictions

 Who is Leading? Trending Towards
Polls Kari Lake Kari Lake
Social Media Sentiment Katie Hobbs Katie Hobbs
Google Search Kari Lake Katie Hobbs

Arizona Governor Polls: Key Observations and Insights

  • The latest Trafalgar Poll (R) confirms our forecast a week ago, Kari Lake is now ahead of Katie Hobbs. Over the last 3 months, Lake had gained 3 points while Hobbs hadn’t gained at all.
  • Compared to the 2018 Governor election, Kari Lake is underperforming Doug Ducey by 3 points while Katie Hobbs is outperforming Democrat David Garcia by 4 points.
  • Katie Hobbs has made no progress in the polls over the last 3 months. In June after the Dobbs Decision (Roe vs Wade), Katie Hobbs led by 5 points, 46% to 41%. In the latest Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs Polls, Katie Hobbs is down 1% at 45% while Kari Lake has gained 4% and is now polling at the same level as Hobbs.
  • Katie Hobbs did not gain significantly after the Dobbs decision. Unlike Democratic party candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania, Katie Hobbs gained just 2 points after the Dobbs decision, that lead is now gone.
  • Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden: While it is true that Trump lost the 2020 election by a narrow margin, GOP candidates in Arizona’s Gubernatorial elections have won on an average by 13% points. In 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 3 points at this point in time. Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden.
  • Democrats have won very few elections in a state that has recently voted overwhelmingly Republican. Republican registrations lead Democrats by 3.5% but 1 in 3 voters are registered as Independent.
    • Independents may once again play important role in Arizona. The 2020 Presidential election saw a large number of Independent voters backing Democrats Joe Biden. Kari Lake is (-10%) amongst Independent voters on Net Favorability. Katie Hobbs is +8% amongst Independent voters.
  • Katie Hobbs needs a 6% swing from historic averages to win the election, and Kari Lake needs to keep the losses below that.
  • Kari lake is leading amongst Older men and Hispanic voters while trailing amongst younger voters, Women, and unaffiliated/independent voters. She is also significantly ahead amongst Non-College Grads
  • Katie Hobbs is in a comfortable position demographically but she will be under great threat from Kari Lake, particularly with intersecting issues (Inflation for example) amongst moderate women. Kari Lake will also attempt to push her vote share amongst non-college going men to about 60% from the current 50%
  • The top issue is Inflation and about 50% of the voters are worried about their future. The latest inflation data may hurt Democrat Hobbs.
  • 54% of the voters believe Lake will win the Gubernatorial election (Emerson).

Youngkin traveling to Arizona to campaign for Kari Lake 

YouTube video

Arizona Governor Race Polls

Average of Polls September 22nd
Kari Lake 46.3%
Katie Hobbs 45.3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 17th
Kari Lake 50%
Katie Hobbs 46%
Emerson September 7th
Kari Lake 46%
Katie Hobbs 46%
Fox News September 7th
Kari Lake 43%(-1%)
Katie Hobbs 44%(-3%)
2018 Polls Average September 2018
Ducey 49%
Garcia 42%

Kari Lake Polls: Impact of Roe vs Wade

  • The Big Question is, has Roe vs Wade fundamentally changed the tone of this election?
Kari Lake (R) Katie Hobbs (D)
3 Polls BEFORE Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS* 41.7% 44.0%
3 Polls AFTER Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS 40.0% 45.7%
Change after Roe vs Wade was overturned -1.7% +1.7%
*Nov 2021 to May 2022

Statistical Analysis of Past Elections

The last 3 Gubernatorial elections have been won by Republicans with substantial margins.

Last 7 Days
Kari Lake 62%
Katie Hobbs 38%
Last 30 Days
Kari Lake 61%
Katie Hobbs 39%

Social Media sentiments

September 22nd
Kari Lake -60.7%
Katie Hobbs -47.3%

Why did Katie Hobbs refuse to Debate Kari Lake?

Kari Lake recently posted a picture of an empty chair and tagged Kattie Hobbs that the chair was hers and she missed her. Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs were to debate but Hobbs denied debating Lake in the last minute.

Her campaign manager, Nicole DeMont in her statement said that Katie Hobbs was not interested in debating the conspiracy theorist Kari Lake whose entire campaign platform causes enormous chaos and makes Arizona the subject of national ridicule.

Lake in her reply said that Katie Hobbs is hiding from her, the Press, and the Voters throughout the entirety of this campaign.

Arizona Governor Race: Latest Videos

YouTube video

Increase in Arizona’s Hispanic Population, 2012 to 2020

Increase in Arizona’s Population, 2012 to 2020

Arizona Governor Race: Latest Tweets

Arizona Governor Polls: Latest News

  1. Kari Lake drops an embarrassing bombshell that blows up in her face
  2. Kari Lake’s claims against opponent Katie Hobbs proved false
  3. Kari Lake mimics Mark Finchem’s antisemitic denial of antisemitism
  4. Arizona’s governor race: Kari Lake still wants a debate, Hobbs is unwavering
  5. Kari Lake: This Is The Most Inclusive Republican Party We’ve Ever Seen

Arizona Governor Race 2022: Demographics

Arizona is a white majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make up the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe. It is the 4th most populous county in the USA. Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.

As per the latest 2020 Census figures

The White voters have mostly backed Republicans in the past. Even in the 2020 election, the white voters did stand behind Trump but it was Maricopa County that decided the fate of the 2020 election in Arizona. Biden despite trailing Trump in the majority of the counties won in Maricopa by a huge margin. This helped him win the state in the end.

Arizona Governor Race: Voter Registration

From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.

As of April 2022, the state has 4.29 Million Registered Voters.

34.5% are registered as a Republican
31.0% are registered as a
33.7% are registered as an

Arizona Governor race 2022 Polls

Read: Wisconsin Governor Polls 2022

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