|August 8th: Arizona Senate Polls 2022: No Polls have been published after the Primary election result were declared. However, the polls conducted before the Primary election have Mark Kelly ahead of Blake Masters.
AZ Primary Polls: Blake Masters 39%, Mark Kelly 48%
Average of Poll: Blake Masters: 38% Mark Kelly: 49%
Google Trend: Blake Masters: 65%, Mark Kelly: 35%.
The Arizona Senate Race will be held on November 8th to elect a member of the US Senate. The primaries will be held on August 2nd, 2022.
On Augsust 2nd, Arizona voted in the Primary election. Blake Masters won the GOP nomination while Mark Kelly had challenger in the Dems Primary election.
For the Senate Race it will be the fight between Democrat Mark Kelly and the Republican Blake Masters.
|Arizona Senate Race: Election Breaking
Ron DeSantis To Campaign in Arizona
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will be campaigning in Arizona this month. DeSantis’ Arizona Campaign is part of Republicans’ “Unite and Win” campaign.
He will be in Arizona to support GOP Candidates who have won the Primaries and will fighting the upcoming mid-term election. Not just in Arizona, DeSantis will be campaigning in New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Ohio this month in support of GOP candidates. He will also be campaigning for the Trump-endorsed candidates.
It must be noted that Ron DeSantis will be facing re-election in November and if he wins, there are high chances that he may announce his candidature for the 2024 Presidential. If so happens, he will be facing former President Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries.
Arizona Republican Primary: Prediction Table
|Who is leading?|
|Google Search Volumes||Blake Masters|
|Social Media Sentiment||Blake Masters|
Arizona Senate Polls: Latest Polls
|Average of all Pollsters||August 8th|
|Change Research||June 27th|
|Blueprint Polling||May 16th|
AZ Primary Polls 2022: Betting Favorite
As per the latest betting data from Polymarket, Blake Masters is the favorite to win the upcoming Arizona Senate Race. His chances of winning the race stand at 83% as per the Polymarket.
Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls: Google Search Update
Arizona Senate Race Polls: Social Media sentiments
Arizona Primary Polls: Latest Videos
Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Latest Tweets
Sinema caved and joined the rest of the Democrats. But isn’t it interesting how everyone was wondering what she was going to do? Mark Kelly’s vote, by contrast, was never in question. You never had to wonder. He does whatever Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer tell him to. Rubber stamp
This afternoon, after voting through the night, we have finally passed the Inflation Reduction Act. Here’s what this will mean for Arizonans:
First, it includes our plan to lower prescription drug costs by empowering Medicare to negotiate the price of the most expensive prescription drugs and capping Medicare beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket drug costs at $2,000 per year.
Second, it includes funding we negotiated to combat the impacts of drought and tackles climate change that is making wildfires and heat in our state more severe by boosting renewable energy manufacturing and production.
And finally, it accomplishes these goals without raising taxes on small businesses and middle class Arizonans, and while reducing the deficit, by closing tax loopholes on the most profitable corporations.
When I meet with Arizonans and small businesses across our state, the top concern I hear about is rising costs. This is going to lower costs for health care, prescription drugs, and energy while creating great-paying jobs in Arizona.
Arizona Senate Race: Primary Election Data
The Arizona Senate Primary election concluded on August 2nd. Mark Kelly was declared winner unopposed in the Democratic Party’s Primary election. In the GOP Senate Primary, Blake Masters won the GOP nominee.
|Total Votes||Vote Share|
Arizona Senate GOP Candidates
- Mark Brnovich, (Attorney General of Arizona(2015-Present)
- Jim Lamon (Businessman)
- Blake Masters, (COO of Thiel Capital, President of Thiel Foundation)
- Michael McGuire (Major General(ret.) of the Arizona National Guard)
- Justin Olson (Arizona Utility Regulator on the Arizona Corporation Commission)
- Robert Paveza(Software Engineer)
- Craig Brittain
Arizona Senate Polls: Fundraising Details
|Candidate||Raised||Spent||Cash on Hand||Last Report|
|Jim Lamon (R)||$15,046,697||$12,986,546||$2,060,152||06/30/2022|
|Blake Masters (R)||$4,539,303||$2,954,816||$1,584,487||06/30/2022|
|Mark Brnovich (R)||$3,028,862||$2,516,325||$512,537||06/30/2022|
|Mick McGuire (R)||$2,421,497||$2,024,074||$397,423||06/30/2022|
|Justin Olson (R)||$308,185||$192,873||$114,881||06/30/2022|
Among the GOP Candidates, Jim Lamon has been able to raise maximum funds to finance his campaign. Despite Blake Masters being endorsed by Donald Trump and backed by Peter Thiel, American billionaire entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and political activist, has not been able to raise funds as much as Jim Lamon has been able to raise.
Lamon has raided over $15M as of now while Blake Masters has been able to raise around $4.5M. Talking about expenditure, Lamon has spent nearly $13M as of now while Masters has spent around $3M on his campaign. Mark Brnovich has an expenditure of around $2.5M on his campaign as of now.
However, if we talk about spending outside of the fund raised, Blake Masters is way ahead of Jim Lamon. Masters has over $7M outside expenditure while Lamon has none apart from the fund raised.
Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls: Democratic Party
|Candidate||Raised||Spent||Cash on Hand||Last Report|
|Mark Kelly (D)||$50,768,678||$27,244,110||$24,927,092||06/30/2022|
The incumbent Mark Kelly has raised a whopping $50M for his campaign and none of the GOP candidates can even come closer to the funding of Mark Kelly. Even after spending $27M as of now, Kelly is left with nearly $25M in hand.
GOP Primary Election Polls
What Were Our Insights and Observation?
- Blake Masters is well placed to win the Arizona GOP Senate Primary. The poll numbers have been in his favor since the very beginning but the latest poll has given Jim Lamon an edge over Blake Masters. Blake Masters has been endorsed by Donald Trump for the upcoming GOP Primary election.
- Despite the latest poll being in favor of Jim Lamon, all our indicators are suggesting that Blake Masters will win with a comfortable margin.
- The Google search volume for Blake Masters has been higher than the rest of the GOP candidates. One thing that will help Masters win the upcoming GOP race is the popularity of Trump in Arizona. The Trump supporters in Arizona are firmly behind Blake Masters.
- Blake Masters at 27% is underperforming the other Trump candidate Kari Lake who is running for Governor. This is due to
- A late Trump endorsement
- An ordinary campaign that has led to 2 in 5 GOP voters having a negative opinion of Blake Masters. Due to some of his comments earlier in the campaign, Blake Masters has struggled to win the more ‘moderate’ Trump supporters (Specifically women
- A much more fragmented race against 2 seasoned politicians
- Still, Trump is extremely popular in Arizona and it is likely that Blake Masters will end with a vote share in the range of 35-45% given that about 14% are undecided.
Arizona Senate Polls: Last 3 Election Polling Average and Result
2020 Senate Election: The last Arizona Senate Election took place in 2020. It was a special election initiated after the death of the sitting Republican Senator John McCain. After the death of McCain, the Arizona Governor appointed Jon Kyl as a Senator in place of McCain till the special election was held. However, Jon Kyl resigned within four months of his appointment and Martha McSally replaced him as a Senator.
On November 3rd, 2020 a special election was held to elect the next Senator of Arizona. Mark Kelly was on the ballot for Democratic Party. Kelly defeated McSally and flipped the seat after a long duration. He outperformed Joe Biden who won the state by a margin of 0.3% while Kelly won the seat by a margin of 2.4%.
Result: Mark Kelly: 51.2% Martha McSally: 48.8%
Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls: 2016 Senate Election: 2016 Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8th, 2016. John McCain was the GOP nominee while Ann Kirkpatrick was on the ballot as a Democratic Party nominee. The election was almost one-sided with Ann Kirkpatrick posing almost no threat to McCain’s election. John McCain won the election by a whopping 13%. McCain polled 53.7% of the total votes while Ann Kirkpatrick received 40.8% vote share.
2010 Senate Election: The 2010 Senate election in Arizona was completely dominated by the Republicans. John McCain was the GOP candidate while Rodney Glassman was the Democratic Party’s candidate. The election was held on November 2, 2010. John McCain won the election and he secured a total of 59.1% votes while Glassman received only 34.% of the total votes.
Blake Masters Polls: Donald Trump Remains The Most Influential Politician In Arizona
Arizona senate GOP race has had three candidates in a tough fight since the very beginning, Mark Brnovich, Jim Lamon, and Blake Masters. Brnovich and Lamon were competing for first and second place while Blake Masters was third initially. However, the endorsement of Blake Masters by Donald Trump has changed the face of the GOP Primary Race. Blake Masters now is ahead in the polls.
Blake Masters Polls: Why did Things Change Drastically?
The answer to the question remains Trump’s popularity index among the Republicans in Arizona. A survey by Fabrizio Lee found that Trump’s popularity among Republican voters remained unchanged over the last few months. His approval rating remains very high with 88% approving of the work he had done. Added to it, of the 88%, around 71% have a strong approval for Trump. Now, with a support base of over 70%, Trump’s endorsement was sure to change the course of the Arizona election.
Blake Masters is now in the driver’s seat and he is all set to win the upcoming GOP Primary race as per the latest poll.
Blake Masters Polls: Why is Media Behind Blake Masters?
Blake Masters is turning out to be one of the most controversial candidates after he has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Recently, the mainstream media was full of news about Blake Masters blaming the black people for Gun violence. The video was an old one but the media got a chance to blaze their guns on the Trump-endorsed candidate.
One of the main reasons for Blake Masters being the hot topic for media is his endorsement by Donald Trump. If Masters wins the primary election, he will have a better chance of winning the November 8th Primary election. The other reason is Blake Masters being funded heavily by Peter Theil. Peter Theil had recently funded JD Vance in the Ohio election. Theil has been an active Trump supporter and has been funding his campaign. Theil has recently put another $3.5M behind Blake Masters. Barring other candidates, Blake Masters is well-funded and with Trump’s endorsement, he has a better chance of winning the Senate Primary race.
Arizona Senate Race Polls: General Election
Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters
Among the 3 frontrunners for the GOP Primary race, Blake Masters has the least chance of winning against Mark Kelly. Mark Brnovich has the best chances but even he is trailing behind Mark Kelly. It must be remembered that the polls were released before the endorsement of Blake Masters by Donald Trump. Since the endorsement of Blake Masters by Donald Trump, his chances of winning the GOP primary election have gone up.
|Trump In Arizona
Donald Trump was supposed to visit Arizona to campaign for Lake, Masters, and other GOP Candidates endorsed by him. However, Trump’s rally in Arizona has been postponed and will now happen next Friday that is July 22nd. The postponement of the rally happened due to the death of Trump’s first wife, Ivana Trump who died on Thursday in New York City at the age of 73.
The news about Trump’s rally being postponed was shared by Kari Lake through her official Twitter account. She attached the screenshot of Trump’s other social media account and she wrote, “My heart goes out to President Trump and his children. I am saddened to receive news that tomorrow’s Save America rally has been cancelled, however, I know firsthand that it is important to be surrounded by family when you lose a Mother. We look forward to seeing you next Friday!”
Arizona Senate Race Polls: Endorsements
- Donald Trump, former US President
- Tucker Carlson, Conservative Journalist, and political commentator
- Peter Thiel, Millionaire Venture Capitalist, and his boss
- Rober C ‘O Brien, Fourth NSA of Donald Trump
- Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC)
Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Voter Registration
From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.
As of July 2021
The state has 4.32 Million Registered Voters.
- 34.72% are registered, Republicans
- 31.78% are registered, Democrats
- 32.60% are Independents
AZ Senate Race 2022 Polls: Frequently Asked Questions
Is Arizona State a Republican or Democratic state?
- Mostly the political offices in Arizona are held by the Republican party. Both US senators and 5 out of 9 houses of representatives are democrats and the remaining other four are Republicans. Many were elected first time elected in 2018.
How often are Senate Elections?
- A senate can run for reelection after six years. As per the term, the Senate has six years to serve Arizona. Senators are appointed or elected in special elections to serve the remainder of the term.
AZ Senate Race 2022 Polls: Demographics
As per the latest 2020 Census figures
Arizona is a majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make up the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe. It is the 4th most populous county in the USA. Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.
Read: Georgia Senate Polls