Israel Election Opinion Poll 2022: Netanyahu Set to Return As PM Once Again?

Israel Election Opinion Poll: The latest opinion poll for the upcoming Isreal election shows one more hung assembly with none of the blocks winning or getting the majority. The block headed by Likud may win 59 seats while the current coalition government’s block may win 55 seats.

Within 3 years, Israel is set to vote for the 5th time to elect the new members of the Knesset. On March 23rd, 2021, Israel voted to elect the members of the 24th Knesset. It was after this election, that the 15 years of Netanyahu’s reign came to end. However, the election result was once again a fragmented one with none of the blocks having a majority number of 61 in the 120-member Knesset.

Neftali Bennet along with Yair Lapid came to an agreement and formed a 7 party coalition government with Neftali Bennet as Prime Minister for the first 1.5 years. The coalition itself was on a shaky good as it stood at the mercy of Islamist Party Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas. On June 20th Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid agreed to dissolve the parliament next week and go for the election later this year.

Israel Election Opinion Poll: What Happens If the Bill for Dissolving the Parliament is Passed?

With a statement, “exhausted option to stabilize coalition”, Isreal’s Prime Minister Neftali Bennet on live TV, declared that he was going to bring the bill to dissolve the current parliament next week and send the country for one more election, that is 5th in the last 3 years.

Bennet was with his coalition partner and the current Foreign Minister Yair Lapid when he made this announcement. Once the bill is passed in the parliament, the current Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid will become the caretaker Prime Minister of Isreal. He will have an additional charge as a Foreign Minister too.

Neftali Bennet on the other hand will take up the role of alternate Prime Minister. Once the bill is passed the election to elect the new members of the Knesset will be held on October 25th.

Israel Election Opinion Poll: What Happened in the Last Election?

The last General election in Isreal was held on March 23rd, 2021. It was the 4th election in a span of 2 years after the first three elections failed to provide a majority to any of the blocks.

A total of 39 parties were registered to contest the election and after the election, a total of 13 parties had their representation in the 24th Knesset. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud was able to send the maximum MKs to the parliament. Likud won 30 seats which were 7 seats less than the seats won by his party in 3rd General election.

Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid was the biggest gainer as the party won 17 seats, that is 4 seats more than the last election, and received a vote share of around 14%. However, none of the parties or coalition came close to the majority, and in the end, anti-Netanyahu block support by the Arab party was formed under the leadership of Neftali Bennet and Yair Lapid.

Neftali Bennet, the leader of the Yamina Party went on to become the Prime Minister of Isreal putting an end to the 15-year rule of Benjamin Netanyahu. Here is a complete list of MKs from all the parties:

Israel Election Opinion Poll 2022: Last Election Result

Party Leader % Seats +/–
Likud Benjamin Netanyahu 24.19 30 -7
Yesh Atid Yair Lapid 13.93 17 +4
Shas Aryeh Deri 7.17 9 0
Blue and White Benny Gantz 6.63 8 -7
Yamina Naftali Bennett 6.21 7 +4
Labor Merav Michaeli 6.09 7 +4
UTJ Moshe Gafni 5.63 7 0
Yisrael Beiteinu Avigdor Lieberman 5.63 7 0
Religious Zionist Bezalel Smotrich 5.12 6 +4
Joint List Ayman Odeh 4.82 6 -5
New Hope Gideon Sa’ar 4.74 6 New
Meretz Nitzan Horowitz 4.59 6 +3
Ra’am Mansour Abbas 3.79 4 0

Israel Election Opinion Poll: How is the Isreal Election Conducted?

The members of the Knessets are elected by closed-list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The threshold for the election is set around 3.25%, that is a party to qualify for having a representation in the Parliament must have a minimum 3.25% vote share.

Added to it, two parties can sign a surplus vote agreement if they run together on the same list. In the last Israeli election, these parties signed a surplus vote agreement:

  1. Yamina and New Hope
  2. Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beiteinu
  3. Blue and White and New Economic Party
  4. Likud and Religious Zionist Party
  5. Israeli Labor Party and Meretz
  6. Shas and United Torah Judaism

Israel Election Opinion Poll 2022

Date June 20th Publisher Panels Politics/103FM
Party Seats Party Seats
Likud 36 Yesh Atid 20
Shas 7 Yamina 7
UTJ 6 Blue and White 8
Religious Zionist 10 Labor 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 5
New Hope 4
Joint List 6 Ra’am 4

After the announcement of dissolving the current parliament, a poll has been released by Panels Politics/103FM. As per the poll, none of the coalitions will be able to hit the magical number of 61 seats. The current coalition government may win 55 seats including the 4 seats of Ra’am while the Netanyahu block may win 59 seats, 2 seats short of the majority. The joint List or the Arab list may win 6 seats.

Likud is set to emerge as the largest party as the poll gives 36 seats to Likud, 6 seats more than the last election. Yesh Atid may win 20 seats, 3 seats more than the last election.

Israel Election Opinion Poll 2022: Conclusion

The next Israeli election may be held in the last week of October. The current coalition minus the Ra’am is in no place to win the majority mark. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and his RW block may fall short of the majority by 2 seats as per the latest poll.

Read: Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Who would win a possible Biden-Trump Rematch?

Israel Election Opinion Poll 2022

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