Liz Cheney is paying the price for voting to impeach Trump, lags behind Hageman in Polls

  • 2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: Latest Polls by Club for Growth (by Hageman) and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates show Harriet Hageman leading over Liz Cheney
  • A new Cygnal survey shows that just 27% of Wyoming voters have a favorable opinion of Liz Cheney, and 71% hold an unfavorable opinion of Cheney
  • On Google Search, the gap has widened between Hageman and Cheney.
  • On Social Media sentiment, Cheney saw a huge spike in the last few days. Negative sentiments for Hageman continue to rise.
  • Cheney’s only hope is that the open primary will bring a significant number of Independent and Democratic party voters

The Wyoming-At-Large (WY-AL) Congressional District goes to the polls on November 8th, 2022. The incumbent Representative Liz Cheney is currently under a serious challenge after her decision to vote in favor of impeaching Donald J Trump over the January 2021 US Capitol Riots. 

Hot in Campaign: “We need fewer DC divas and more problem solvers,” PAC releases a new Ad in support of Harriet Hageman

Outrider PAC, a group supporting Hageman for Wyoming recently released a new commercial boosting Hageman as a problem solver and a supporter of “bipartisan efforts to increase American energy independence and help bring more of the supply chain back to the US.” and indirectly ridiculing Cheney’s excessive involvement in the Jan 6th Committee calling her out as a DC Diva.

The Open Primary is scheduled for August 16th, 2022.

  • Donald Trump has taken it upon himself to do everything he can to seek ‘vengeance’ upon any Republicans who voted to impeach him by defeating and ending their political career.
  • 10 Republicans voted to impeach him in the house and 3 have already announced their decision to retire, fearing defeat in the primary. Trump and his allies have focused most of their ire on the highest-profile House Republican who voted to impeach, Elizabeth Cheney. She was the third most powerful Republican, before being demoted this year and is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.
  • Most polling and publicly available data coming out of Wyoming suggest that Congresswoman Cheney is in trouble in spite of her attempt to rally traditional Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. While Trump supporters form a large proportion of the GOP base in Wyoming, Democrats and Independents are not fully supportive of Ms. Cheney given her conservative positions on numerous issues.
  • According to a report released by ABC News, Congresswoman Liz Cheney has yet again broken the records through her fundraising campaign as she attempts to retain her house representative chair against Trump-endorsed candidate Harriet Hageman. She has raised almost $3 million in campaign contributions through her recent fundraising events over the first three months of the midterm election year.
  • Although deep-red states like Wyoming usually attract less cash flow in terms of campaign contributions. It is only the result of Liz Cheney’s heated battle with Donald Trump over the Jan 6th Capitol riots that has transformed the race for State’s only house seat into such a heated and closely observed contest amongst other 2022 midterms.

In Attempt To Get Trump Officials To Testify, Cheney Tries New Tactic

YouTube video

Check out Trump vs Biden Polls 2024

Can Liz Cheney win the GOP Primary in Wyoming?

Cheney’s path to victory runs through winning a plurality of the vote in the divided field with the help of her large name recognition, her war chest which is $3.6M as of the third quarter of the year, and potentially some democrats crossing the aisle to vote for her in the primary as the general election is not competitive — the winner of this primary is the prohibitive favorite to win in November 2022. Her task has become more difficult since Trump endorsed early, clearing the field and reducing the chance that the “anti-Cheney” vote gets divided.

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: Liz Cheney Polls

As per the available 2022 Wyoming House Race Polls:-

Liz Cheney’s unpopularity reaches new heights in Wyoming

Polling Company Date
Cygnal Internal Poll May 2022
Favourability 27%
Unfavourability 71%
You GovPoll June 2022
Republicans 18%
Democrats 58%
Independent 29%
Republicans 59%
Democrats 22%
Independent 40%

Liz Cheney Polls: Latest Google Search Update

Liz Cheney Polls: Net Sentiment Analysis

Date June 23rd
Liz Cheney -55%
Donald Trump -39%
Harriet Hageman -48%

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: Latest Campaign News

Liz Cheney Polls: Latest Videos

YouTube video

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: Latest Tweets, June 23rd

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: Candidates in the Republican Primaries

The major candidates running in this Primary are:-

  • Liz Cheney, incumbent US House Representative
  • Harriet Hageman, lawyer, a former member of the RNC and Trump’s chosen candidate to defeat Liz Cheney

Harriet Hageman Polls: Racial Demographics of the State

As per the 2020 Census

Demographic Proportion
White American 81.4%
Hispanic American 10.2%
Multi-racial 4.1%
Others 4.2%

An overwhelming majority of voters in the state are White, the same is the case in the Republican Primary

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: Endorsements

  1. Liz Cheney
  • George W Bush, 43rd President (2001 – 2008)
  • Bill Cassidy, U.S. Senator from Louisiana (2015 – Present)
  • Jeff Flake, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (2013 – 2018)
  • Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1999 – present)
  • Charlie Baker, Governor of Massachusetts (2015 – present)
  • Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida (1999 – 2007)
  • Paul Ryan, US House Speaker (2015 – 2019)
  • John Boehner, US House Speaker (2011 – 2015)

Many of Liz Cheney’s supporters and donors can be considered to belong to the Republican ‘Establishment’ , ‘Never-Trumper’ and moderate wings of the party. Both incumbent senators who have endorsed Cheney voted to impeach Trump.

2. Harriet Hageman

There are no 2022 Wyoming House Race Polls on the Democratic Primary simply because there is no activity on the Democratic Side regarding this house seat. Statistics posted below may tell us why they aren’t enthusiastic about this election regardless of who wins this Republican Primary

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: Latest Voter Registration as of October 31, 2021.

As per figures released by the Wyoming Secretary of State.
Wyoming has about 281,000 registered voters

  • Registered Republicans are 70.4% of all total voters
  • Registered Democrats are 15.9% of all total voters
  • 12.5% of voters are unaffiliated while 0.9% of voters belong to the Libertarian Party

Republicans are a majority of all voters in all but 2 counties in the state. In 2020 Donald Trump won Wyoming by 43 points, his best state in the nation.

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls: How Wyoming has voted in the past

The last time the Democrats won a statewide race was in 2010 and the last time they won a senate seat was in 1976.

A)Presidential Elections

The last time Wyoming voted for a Democratic President was in 1964.

Since 1968, no Democrat has crossed 40% of the total vote share

Year Republican
2020 69.9% 26.6%
2016 68.2% 21.9%
2012 68.6% 27.8%
2008 64.8% 32.5%
2004 68.9% 29.1%
2000 67.8% 27.7%

B)House of Representative Seat

Wyoming is the least populous state in the nation and has thus always had only one seat in the US House of Representatives since it was admitted to the Union. The last time the state elected a Democrat to this seat was in 1976. And the last time the seat witnessed a competitive election was in 2006.

Year Republican
2020 Liz Cheney 68.56% Lynette
Grey Bull
2018 Liz Cheney 63.59% Greg
2016 Liz Cheney 62.03% Ryan
2014 Cynthia
68.47% Richard
2012 Cynthia
68.89% Chris
2010 Cynthia
70.42% Dave

C) Liz Cheney’s Primary Performance

Year Liz Cheney’s Voteshare
2016 38.78%
2018 63.7%
2020 73.46%

Reminton Research Group

  • In a fight between Liz Cheney vs Darin Smith, Darin Smith would overwhelmingly win 70% to 20%
  • Even in a four-fledged fight, Liz Cheney is in second place and 5 points behind Darin Smith(24%)
  • 70% of people polled said a hypothetical endorsement for Darin Smith from Trump would make them more likely to vote for him

McLaughlin and Associates

  • It puts Chuck Gray ahead as the forerunner at 25% and Liz Cheney in second place at 23%.
  • In a two-way race, Chuck Gray would beat Cheney 63% to 24%. Darin Smith would also beat her, 54% to 22%.
  • 53% of Primary voters view her as Liberal, and only 26% labeled her a Conservative.
  • Trump has a 79% approval rating in Wyoming.

Read: Latest Biden Approval rating

2022 Wyoming House Race Polls

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