Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Despite Beto O’Rourke making massive gains against the incumbent Greg Abbot, Texas is once again predicted to elect the incumbent Greg Abbot as Governor.
Texas Governor Polls (Average of Last 3 Polls): Greg Abbott: 45.3%, Beto O’Rourke: 40.3%
Latest Beto O’Rourke Polls: Greg Abbott: 45%, Beto O’Rourke: 40%
2018 election, Abbott (R): 47%, Valdez(D) 35% (June-July 2018)
Google Search Volume Share: Abbott: 41%, O’Rourke: 59%
2018 Election: Abbott: 73%, Valdez: 27%
Social Media Sentiments: Abbott: -54.5% , O’Rourke: -14.5%
Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Abbott to win by 6-7%
When is the Texas Governor’s Race?
Incumbent Governor of Texas, Gregg Abbott is up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Beto O’Rourke. Democrats haven’t won a Gubernatorial election in Texas since 1990.
The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions
|Who is leading?||Trending Towards|
|Texas Governor Race Polls||Abbott||Abbott|
|Social Media Sentiment||O’Rourke||O’Rourke|
Latest in the Campaign
Beto O’Rourke Polls: Greg Abbott’s approval ratings are in poor shape
Over the last 3 years, Texas has underperformed the national average by a big margin. For example, Arizona under Governor Ducey (R) outperformed the national average.
- As a consequence, in the latest Texas Governor Polls, 59% of Texans think the state is headed in the wrong direction. 36% of Republicans believe Texas is headed in the wrong direction. Greg Abbott’s approval rating is heading lower with 46% disapproving of the Governor’s performance.
- Many voters are in the middle or neutral. Typically such voters tend to vote against an incumbent for two reasons. They find a strong emotional reason to swing against the incumbent or a robust practical reason to vote for the challenger.
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Beto vs Abbott Poll 2022
Greg Abbott is leading all the Texas Governor Polls released so far. The average polling range for Abbott is about 45-47%, the same as in 2018. However, Beto O’Rourke is trailing the 2019 Democratic party candidate by 5% in the latest Texas Governor Race Polls.
|Average of Polls||Sept 19th|
|Greg Abbott (R)||45.3%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||40.3%|
|University of Texas||Sept 14th|
|Greg Abbott (R)||45%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||40%|
|Greg Abbott (R)||49%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||42%|
|Echelon Insights||Sept 7th|
|Greg Abbott (R)||42%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||39%|
Texas Governor Polls: Last Election Poll and Result
Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Can Beto O’ Rourke win?
Nearly 60% of the voters in Texas describe themselves as Democrats or Independents. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 43% of the vote indicating a conversion of 69%. In 2020, Joe Biden won 46.5% of the vote, a conversion of 79%.
Beto O’Rourke will need to convince 85% of these voters to vote for him during the November Texas Gubernatorial Election. This translates to 400,000 voters shifting loyalties from Republican to Democrat in the November election.
- That is about 1574 votes per County or
- 10% more votes in the Top 10-15 Counties (Many of which voted Democrat) or
- Increasing Democrat Turnout by 12%
While the reality may seem quite different, there is a theoretical possibility that Beto O’ Rourke could beat Greg Abbott.
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Candidate Favorability
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: The Issues
- The Political Environment of Texas still favors the GOP, two significant issues have worsted GOP’s perception amongst voters: Abortion Laws and Law and order or Gun Control. These two seem to be the key issues democrats can leverage to take on Kemp. While Governor Abbott is trying to overlook the central issues for the November elections. Recent Polls suggest that Texas voters, often by wide margins, oppose outlawing all abortion and want stricter gun laws. According to him the No.1 issue by far in the state is the border. His campaign off late has been about targeting Rourke over Police defunding and releasing biographical campaign Ads for his image building
- Inflation, Crime and drugs, and the economy are the top 3 issues impacting Texans, and Abbott is NOT UNCOMFORTABLY placed on any of them. But he is not exactly dominating on these issues either. The problem is Beto has not been able to convince many Texans that he has the solutions to these issues.
- Abbott on the other hand is tightening his positioning on immigration, a traditionally weak area for Democrats in Arizona and Nationally
- The opportunity for Beto is amongst Independent voters. 55% of them do not approve of Governor Abbott. But only 11% of Texan Voters classify themselves as Independent and another 38% classify themselves as Democrats. This is not enough to win the election. Either he will need to mobilize voters with a massive on-ground effort or peel away the 11% of Republicans who do not approve of Greg Abbott. The Republicans will continue to attack Beto as an out-of-touch ‘woke liberal’ who will convert Texas into a New England State to prevent any loss of Republicans to Beto.
- 33% of Independent voters are yet to make up their minds. Even if Beto were to win all these voters (an impossible task), he would still be short of votes to win the election.
- Beto has a very difficult task ahead of him
- He will need to reposition himself as a more moderate politician willing to support some conservative issues or at least come closer to that position
- He will need to mobilize a tremendous amount of resources to mobilize voters during the voting period.
- Last but not the last, Beto will need to articulate his solutions to voters that inspire voters to switch parties and vote for him
- Beto O’Rourke would be doing a 49-day,5600 Mile drive across Texas called the ‘A Drive for Texas’ campaign.
Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Greg Abbott Approval Rating
While Abbott’s approval ratings are not great, the % disapproving of him hasn’t crossed the 50% barrier. His approval ratings have been on a decline since 2021.
Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Google Trends for the last 7 days
Texas Governor Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments
Beto O’Rourke Polls: O’Rourke is rising on Google and Social Media
Google tends to give a pretty accurate picture of the momentum in an election and what we know for sure is that Governor Abbott led Beto by 18 points in the share of Google Searches a week before Uvalde. Beto is leading Abbott by 28 points now in terms of search volume. Social media sentiments towards Governor Abbott have deteriorated during this period.
Texas Governor Race Polls 2022: Latest Campaign Videos
Texas Governor Polls: Latest Tweets
Texas Governor Polls 2022: What is expected from the Texas Governor Election?
a. How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Will Impact Chances of Democrats in Texas?
The Democrats have failed to win the Governor election since 1994. The upcoming Governor election in Texas would be an uphill task for Democrats. The declining Biden’s approval rating is turning out to be a matter of concern for the Democrats. Since being in office Biden has been under extreme pressure due to the issues like Covid, inflation, the US withdrawal of Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine crisis.
President Biden and Democrats have failed on most of the fronts, impacting the Democrats around the country. The result of the latest Virginia election, as well as the North Carolina, shows the increasing influence of Republicans and Democrats losing grip.
b. Republicans have an Upper hand
The latest Texas Governor polls show that Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. In the 2020 General Election, most polls overestimated Biden over Trump in Texas. Trump won the state by 5.8%. Currently, as per the latest Emerson poll, the incumbent governor Greg Abbott is ahead of the Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 points.
All things considered, Abbott should win. However, with Beto O’Rourke closing in, it would be unwise to come to the conclusion of the election as of today.