When will the war in Ukraine End? Perhaps only Putin knows the answer really well but here is an estimate on the basis of various data sets available in the Public Domain
Ukraine War: Why did Putin launch the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine?
The Stated Objectives were to
- Protect the interests and safety of Ethnic Russians/ Russian speakers in Ukraine
The Unstated objectives as articulated by other sources are
- Pushing back any possibility of NATO expansion in Ukraine
- Placing a Moscow Friendly regime in Ukraine
- Returning to the old days of the Soviet Union/CIS with Russia as the De Facto colonial power
- At a more practical level, the objective is to capture and occupy the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), Kherson, and the Zaporizhia region. The so-called corridor from Russia to Crimea.
The current state of the Russian occupation is as follows
When will the war in Ukraine End?
It appears now that the Russians do not have the ability to expand further into Ukraine whether by desire or design. The maps (made by the Institute of the Study of War) show that the Russians have made NO progress in 1 month. In fact, they have lost territory in the Kharkiv region
The Russians are currently focussing on parts of the Donetsk region that are still in Ukrainian control. Eg: Bakhmut.
Bakhmut assault is in fact led by irregulars and not the Russian Armed Forces. Further, there appears to be no evidence that the Russians are preparing for a large ground assault on other regions of Ukraine.
But it is also true that the decision to end the war does not remain with the Russians anymore. It is likely that Ukraine will make a few more attempts to break through the Russian defenses in the Occupied regions until the middle of November (Before winter). After which, there is unlikely to be significant activity until February.
This could change if the Ukrainians achieve significant success before the Winter.
Looking at the data available, it appears that we are reaching the final stages of the war with a few remaining assaults by Ukraine after which the war is likely to be less active. The Russians are unlikely to withdraw from Ukraine under any agreement as it would be a huge loss of face for Mr. Putin. Russian leverage over Europe (through natural resources) may remain for another year or so even as the Europeans find alternate solutions. It is difficult to predict how things will play out a few years from now but it is safe to say that we are reaching the final weeks of the war pending a few Ukrainian attempts to win back territory captured by Russia.